Five of the six fastest growing metropolitan economies in The Conference Board of Canada's Metropolitan Outlook Spring 2004 are located in western Canada. Calgary, Regina, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Vancouver will all post real gross domestic product (GDP) growth above three per cent in 2004.

"There is plenty of optimism for most western cities in 2004," said Mario Lefebvre, Director, Metropolitan Outlook Service. "Calgary's economy will set the pace in 2004 with a growth rate of 4.6 per cent, powered by strong activity in the energy sector. Oil and gas output will also drive growth in Edmonton. Regina will benefit from overall strength in the services sector and brighter prospects in the agricultural sector."

Regina's economy declined in both 2002 and 2003, although the decline in real GDP last year was not as pronounced as previously forecast in the Winter Outlook. As a result, the rebound in Regina's economy is not expected to be as strong as previously anticipated, although growth will still be an impressive 3.7 per cent this year.

After posting total real GDP growth of just 1.2 per cent in 2003, Winnipeg's economy will benefit from the recovery in the U.S. economy, leading to a 3.6 per cent expansion in 2004. Housing starts, which posted relatively high levels over the past few years, will decline in 2004. Non-residential construction activity will, however, more than offset weak residential construction.

Solid employment growth has been the norm in Edmonton, as 47,000 jobs were created in the past three years. Although the pace of job creation will slow, roughly 9,600 new jobs are forecast to be created in 2004. The surging energy sector will provide a boost to both manufacturing and non-residential construction output, lifting overall economic growth to 3.5 per cent this year.

A sense of optimism has swept over Vancouver as preparations begin for the 2010 Winter Olympics. Construction output will increase in the range of five per cent per year in both 2004 and 2005. Led by healthy job creation, consumer spending picked up in the second half of 2003 and is forecast to continue to do so in the short term. All in all, Vancouver's real GDP, which grew by 3.3 per cent in 2003, is anticipated to rise by another 3.3 per cent in 2004 and by an annual average of 3.4 per cent over the medium term.

Victoria's housing starts increased significantly in 2003. However, that was one of the few bright spots for this economy, which recorded an overall decline of 1.7 per cent last year. Victoria's economy is expected to post growth of 2.3 per cent this year, as the services sector is forecast to recover.

The Metropolitan Outlook, produced three times a year, provides economic insights into 25 Census Metropolitan Areas, their related province, and Canada.